Morning & Evening Star

What Is the Morning and Evening Star?

The morning star and evening star are three-candle reversal patterns that represent a complete narrative of trend exhaustion and reversal. They are among the most reliable candlestick patterns because the three-candle structure provides more confirmation than single or two-candle patterns.

Morning star (bullish reversal):

1. A large bearish candle — the downtrend is in full force
2. A small-bodied candle (the star) — indecision enters the market
3. A large bullish candle — buyers take control and reverse the move

Evening star (bearish reversal):

1. A large bullish candle — the uptrend is in full force
2. A small-bodied candle (the star) — indecision enters the market
3. A large bearish candle — sellers take control and reverse the move

With a 70-78% success rate, these are among the highest-probability candlestick patterns available. The three-phase structure — trend, indecision, reversal — tells a complete story that single-candle patterns like doji or hammers cannot match.

How to Identify the Pattern

The Three Candles

First candle: A strong candle in the trend direction. For a morning star, this is a large bearish candle. For an evening star, a large bullish candle. This candle confirms that the trend is still active.

Second candle (the star): A small-bodied candle that shows indecision. Ideally, this candle gaps away from the first candle — in stocks, you see clear gaps; in forex, look for a small separation or a very small body. The star can be a doji, a spinning top, or any small-bodied candle. The smaller the body, the greater the indecision.

Third candle: A strong candle in the opposite direction from the first candle. This is the confirmation candle — it shows that the new side has taken control. The third candle must close at least 50% into the body of the first candle. The deeper the penetration, the stronger the reversal signal.

Validation Criteria

• Third candle penetration: The minimum is 50% into the first candle’s body. A third candle that closes beyond the first candle’s open is the strongest signal
• Star candle size: Should be noticeably smaller than both the first and third candles
• Candle sizes: The first and third candles should be large relative to recent price action — they represent conviction, not noise
• Location: The pattern is most reliable at key support (morning star) or resistance (evening star)

Variations

Doji star: When the star candle is a doji, the pattern is called a “morning doji star” or “evening doji star.” This is the strongest variant because the doji represents maximum indecision — neither side could gain any advantage during the star period.

Three-candle formations in forex: True gaps are rare in forex because the market trades 24/5. Instead of requiring a gap, look for a very small-bodied star candle that closes near its open, preferably with some separation from the first candle’s close.

Trading Rules

Entry

The standard entry is at the close of the third candle. Once the third candle closes into the first candle’s body, the pattern is confirmed and you enter in the reversal direction.

For additional safety, wait for the candle after the third to trade in the reversal direction before entering. This adds another layer of confirmation but gives a worse entry price.

Do not enter at the star candle. The star only shows indecision — the third candle is what confirms the reversal. Entering at the star is anticipating a pattern that may never complete.

Target

The morning and evening star often signals a significant reversal, especially on H4 and D1 charts. This means targets can be more ambitious than with single-candle patterns:

• Next key level: Target the nearest significant support or resistance level
• Previous swing: For morning stars, target the swing high that preceded the downtrend. For evening stars, the swing low that preceded the uptrend
• R:R based: 2:1 to 3:1 risk-to-reward based on the stop distance

The high success rate (70-78%) combined with good R:R ratios makes the morning and evening star one of the best expectancy patterns available.

Stop Placement

Place your stop beyond the extreme of the three-candle formation:

• Morning star: Below the lowest point of the three candles (usually the star’s low or the first candle’s low)
• Evening star: Above the highest point of the three candles (usually the star’s high or the first candle’s high)

On H4 charts, this stop can sometimes be large. In these cases, reduce your position size to keep your risk constant as a percentage of your account. Use a position size calculator to determine the appropriate lot size.

Journaling This Pattern

The morning and evening star’s three-candle structure gives you several variables to track and analyze.

Record for every trade:

• Pattern type: Morning star or evening star
• Star candle type: Doji, spinning top, hammer, or other small-bodied candle
• Third candle penetration: What percentage of the first candle’s body did the third candle penetrate? (50%, 75%, full)
• Gap presence: Was there any separation between the first candle’s close and the star’s open?
• Location: At support, resistance, trendline, or other key level
• Relative candle sizes: Was the third candle as large as the first?
• Timeframe and pair

After collecting 20-25 morning/evening star trades, PipJournal’s analytics reveal which variables drive your results. You may find that evening stars with doji star candles at D1 resistance levels have a 85% success rate, while morning stars on H4 without a key level barely break 55%.

Separate your morning star and evening star results. Many traders are better at one direction than the other — a common behavioral asymmetry that only data can reveal.

Common Mistakes

Weak third candle. The third candle is the confirmation. If it only closes 30% into the first candle, the reversal lacks conviction. Require at least 50% penetration — and prefer 75%+ for the strongest signals.

Lower timeframe application. On H1, the three candles represent three hours. On M15, forty-five minutes. These short formation periods are unlikely to represent genuine multi-session sentiment shifts. Stick to H4 and D1 for the most reliable results.

Entering at the star. The star candle shows indecision, not direction. Entering at the star before the third candle confirms is gambling on an incomplete pattern. Many stars are followed by trend continuation, not reversal.

Small third candle. If the third candle is significantly smaller than the first, the reversal lacks proportional strength. The third candle should be comparable in size to the first — ideally the same size or larger.

When It Fails

Morning and evening star patterns fail when the third candle’s reversal does not follow through. Price may reverse back past the star candle, invalidating the pattern.

Failures are more likely when:

• The pattern forms at a weak level with no significant support or resistance
• The third candle barely penetrates the first candle (below 50%)
• The preceding trend has very strong fundamental support
• The star candle is not truly small-bodied — it is a normal-sized candle

A failed morning star is a bearish signal — the market attempted a reversal and could not sustain it, confirming the downtrend’s strength. Similarly, a failed evening star confirms bullish strength.

Journal these failures in PipJournal. Over time, you will identify the specific conditions that predict morning/evening star failures in your trading, allowing you to avoid low-probability setups.

Track your morning and evening star trades with precision. PipJournal logs every three-candle setup, measures your success rate by star type and location, and delivers AI-powered coaching — $179 lifetime, no recurring fees.